Every brokerage has Samvat 2083 picks. Firefly's rule has none, again.

Muhurat trading for Samvat 2083 was a seventy-minute session on Sunday afternoon, and it ended lower. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,986.40, down 0.18%; the Sensex at 80,999.40, down 0.04%. Financial Express counted it as the first Diwali session in nine years to close in the red. Sun Pharma (+3.0%) and Tata Steel (+2.1%) led, SBI Life, IndiGo, Bharti Airtel and Infosys lagged, and the pharma index was the day's best, up 1.7%. The seven sessions before it had added more than 10% to both indexes, with foreign investors buying ₹45,961 crore of shares in a week, by Reuters' count.

As every year, the brokerages' Samvat lists arrived with the lamps. We collected five: Motilal Oswal's ten, Axis Securities' nine, Samco's ten with targets and stop-losses, Monarch Networth's thirteen with targets, and JM Financial's four. Forty-six picks, forty-three names once the overlaps are removed.

We run a different kind of list. Fintrens Signals publishes what Firefly's rule-based strategy sees on 2,720 NSE stocks and ETFs, from a published backtest, and it does not know what Samvat it is. As of its latest batch, the number of those 2,720 stocks in the buy zone is zero. Here is what the same rule says about the forty-three.

The 43 picks, read by Firefly Breakout Weekly

The strategy behind Signals is a weekly breakout rule: it enters when a stock clears a defined level on the weekly chart, holds while the trend rule stays intact, and exits on a stop, a reversal or a target. Every entry and exit since October 2024 is on the stock's Signals page. "Closed" below means the last buy signal has already exited; the figure is how far it closed from its entry, simulated and before costs. "Paused" means the price history has an unadjusted split or bonus and the rule refuses to read a chart it cannot trust.

Forty-three picks, forty-three Waits

Nine of the forty-three have never produced a signal. Four of those, Unimech, Symbiotec, Nephrocare and Vedanta Aluminium, are recent listings the rule has barely had time to watch. The other five, Kotak Mahindra Bank, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Indian Hotels and Indegene, have simply never closed a week above their range since the log began. That is not a view on the companies. It is two years without the one event this rule waits for, on some of the most-owned stocks in India.

Four are paused: HFCL, MCX, HDFC AMC and Sterlite Technologies all have a split or bonus their price file has not adjusted, which is why HDFC AMC's last row shows a −44% that no trader experienced. The rule stops rather than guess.

The remaining thirty-four did fire at some point in the last two years, and the record is mixed in the way a breakout rule's record is always mixed: thirteen closed above their entry, twenty-one below. Most of the losses are the stop doing its job at around ten per cent. The wins are lumpier.

Four of the picks have already hit the rule's target this year: Azad Engineering (+50.3%, May to September), Sansera Engineering (+50.0%, May to September), HFCL (+51.0%, in three weeks in April and May) and Sterlite Technologies (+51.2%, April to May). Samco is recommending Azad, Sansera and HFCL for Samvat 2083, and JM Financial Sterlite, after the rule has taken its profit and left. That is not a contradiction; a one-year target and a breakout rule are different instruments. But it is worth knowing that the rule's last word on all four was "exit".

Titan is Motilal Oswal's consumption pick. The rule's last signal on it opened on 10 August and closed on 30 September, 9.2% below entry, before October's fall. On the banks: Kotak has never triggered, SBI has never triggered, and ICICI Bank's July signal closed in September, 1.9% under its entry.

What the overlaps say

Three names appear on two lists. Eternal (Motilal Oswal and Axis) has had one signal in two years, July to November 2025, closed +4.7%, and nothing since. BSE (Motilal Oswal and Samco) has had five, the most of any pick, and the last closed in July almost exactly where it entered. Bharat Electronics (Monarch and JM Financial) has had three; the last, in February and March, closed at the stop. Two brokerages agreeing tells you something about the brokerages. It does not change what the chart has done.

Sunday's movers, against their own record

• Sun Pharma, the best stock in both indexes at +2.96%. One signal in two years, November 2025 to January 2026, closed −6.6%.
• Tata Steel, +2.09% on results. Three signals; the last ran from January to June and closed −2.9%.
• Divi's Laboratories, +7.5% on a 64% jump in quarterly profit. Three signals, the last closed −7.4% in January.
• Finolex Cables, the session's circuit-breaker at +15% and more. Three signals; the last lasted five days in May and closed −10.4%.
• Trent, −0.81%. Its May signal closed 34% below entry, the worst exit on any Nifty 50 stock in the log.
• Infosys, lower again. Never triggered.

The day's best stock and a rule's buy are unrelated facts. So are the day's worst stock and a rule's avoid.

Why the rule is quiet after a 10% fortnight

A breakout rule needs a weekly close above the range. The batch behind these pages is dated 30 September, before October's fall and before this fortnight's recovery, which is why every row above reads Wait. The next export reads the new weekly closes. After a 10% move in seven sessions, several of these forty-three may well have cleared their levels, and their pages will say so the day the batch lands, with a stop next to the entry. Until then the honest answer is Wait, which means only this: the stock has not yet done the one thing this rule waits for.

Raamdeo Agrawal of Motilal Oswal said on Sunday that the market "has the potential to give investors bumper returns by next Diwali". He may be right. A rule has no view on next Diwali. It has a view on next Friday's close, and it will tell you when that view changes.

Check your own Samvat list

If a broker, a WhatsApp group or a cousin has given you a Samvat 2083 list, type each name into the search box on Signals. The page shows the current verdict, every past signal with its entry, exit and result, and where the stop would sit. If the answer is Wait, that is information too. If a name on your list has never triggered in two years, that is information as well.

The Signals batch behind this post is dated 30 September 2026 and the prices are the NSE close of 6 November; the next export updates every page. The pick lists are from Outlook Money (Motilal Oswal, 4 November; Axis Securities, 6 November), Business Today (Monarch Networth, 4 November; Samco Securities, 8 November) and Zee Business (JM Financial). Session figures are from Upstox's live blog, Financial Express as carried by IndiaIPO, and Nation Path citing Reuters for the FPI number. Targets are the brokerages', not ours.

Fintrens Technologies is a software company, not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst. Signals publishes the output of a rule-based strategy from a backtest; results are simulated, before costs, and do not indicate future performance. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading in equities involves risk of loss.

Further reading on fintrens.com

• Which NSE stocks are in the buy zone today
• How Firefly's strategies and their risk limits work
• What a backtest can and cannot tell you
• Diwali 2026 stock picks vs Firefly's rules: zero buy signals